Bitcoin have already hit the bottom or there is worse to come?

Considering that we are and have been in a bear market, the recent rise is most likely just a temporary rebound as we can already see prices starting to fall sharply. Also it depends on what your definition of ‘worse’ is. Bitcoin can very well touch 3000 USD in the coming weeks/months to come. Even if and when that happens, we won’t be able to say for sure if that price would be the bottom. For a significant period many investors and traders thought 6k was the bottom but as we saw, that was not the case.

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While no one could predict future with 100 percent accuracy – least of all an expert of the crypto market – the behavior of world governments over the past six months or so have shown that they are willing to tolerate, if not outright embrace, cryptocurrency.

Actually, Large price swings have become so normal that it's hard to decide - we can easily see this market bounce back in very short order. The true believers say it's nothing to worry about and buy more after the drop. Then prices drop again and reality sets in. People get scared and start selling, then desperate, then they just give up as the price ends up back where it was in the "stealth" phase and fortunes are lost.

Bitcoin prices in 2018 have been marked by volatility which has made bitcoin price prediction in short-term a bit of a challenge, even for the experienced analysts. So far, 2018 has presented its own surprises though not a dramatic as the rollercoaster we say in 2017.

 

History generally has a way of repeating itself but bitcoin has a lot of history which makes it an equal challenge predicting which history will be repeated. It takes more than a study of past trends to get predictions spot-on this time and so we ended this article by highlighting certain area expert analysts were looking at.

Bitcoin has truly entered the mainstream and is now readily accepted as payment by a huge number of top-tier organizations across a whole spectrum of industries, as well as start-ups, and even charities. These include Microsoft, Expedia, bloomberg, Save the Children, Wikipedia, Virgin Galactic, Subway, and Whole Foods.

What should be remembered regarding the frequent proclamations of Bitcoin’s “death” is the fact that the active decreases in the value of BTC in the market is not an isolated case in the blockchain universe, so it would be futile to suppose that BTC is dead only because it lost -66% of its total value since making it to its all-time high back in December of 2017.

At this point, being almost 10 years around as the original crypto, the dominance of BTC has clearly become well-established in the cryptocurrency market, although the scalability issues prevail on the BTC network, so Bitcoin doesn’t seem to be leaving the spot of the first largest currency any time soon even when the price corrects to around the $3,000-ish region as I believe the lows still hasn’t been set.

Every single chart that we have shows it going to $4,800 and then down to $3,000 give or take a margin of error, all except MN60 that is. Now, there are two ways to interpret this, the first is that the lows will not be made as not all timeframes line up, and by all timeframes MN5, MN15, MN30, MN240 all have the same targets in various long/short structures.

The other way to look at it is that MN60 is used by almost everyone trading the markets, it’s the hybrid between technicals at low timeframe and fundamentals at high timeframe. Could this be a “setup” to bring the masses in to the market with an upmove and shift that capital to stronger hands via a capitulation down move, that would be my conclusion.

So we’ve planned for high $4,000s and then low $3,000s, what happens after, the MN240 is pointing to $7,000s but that’s going to be a while away, it takes a really long time for the markets to move. Just look at this on the MN15 which is our current trigger timeframe, it took 24hrs to consolidate where we noticed earlier in the week there was a blockage at $3,800.

This was a consolidation on a partial move of the main move, only 20%, when you have a full trend the consolidation could be one week. Yes, MT5, unfortunately we cannot show the Galaxy charts any more as there is too much information on them, however the caveat in all this is that the market can and will change its mind in an instant. On the MN240 that consolidation will be measured in weeks but more often than not months.

Did Bitcoin hit the bottom, unlikely, does it matter, only if we’re long, we don’t have double and triple digital trading options. People were in London earlier in the year and talking to them who created a startup to sell houses via Blockchain, We still have absolutely no idea where we would even start with such a thing. These are the areas, basically all ICOs, that will capitulate, then people come along and say the mining cost is $5,000 per Bitcoin.

Well that’s why we're more experienced that everyone else, because We’ve been doing this a very long time and I remember when the Gold spot was below mining cost by 20%, and that had physical value, $250 mining and $200 spot. Bitcoin does not have physical value so you can easily make the case for 80% below spot, which would be $2,000 Bitcoin. It’s highly unlikely we will see it in this wave, but next year quite probably, however we are quite comfortable with that because our algorithm  can pick the exact highs and lows so we can short it senseless and offset the liability. It should be an interesting year ahead.

The reality of bitcoin and the entire crypto market is a very simple one. Very few people control vast amounts of everything. Whatever they decide will happen is what happens. Whatever governments do restricts them. “Investors” like me and you barely move the needle.

If you truly want to understand what crypto prices are going to do in the future, then you need to understand where the trading volume is. Which coins it originates from, where the capital to put them into circulation is coming from, and what pressures are acting on those capital flows.

And, Bitcoin will have to shake out these bad investors and will have to absorb the large amount of Bitcoin sold in the last 3 months. The lowest Bitcoin may go this year, will be 3K (worst case scenario), since that is a level with much resistance and to be honest, with Bitcoin at 3K everyone in the field will buy as much as possible. I do not believe it will reach 3K but if it does, I will be very happy to multiply my investment several times.

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